Winning at a roulette game has a special appeal to mathematicians and physicists. From the perspective of mechanics, chaos theory and game theory, many have already tried to reduce the bank's advantage. Usually from determinism, the idea that an event is caused by earlier events.
Thinking roulette looked like the previous throw. But that is therefore an illusion. Every turn is a new throw. Mathematicians and physicists look at what happens just before the ball bounces and lies still.
As said, there are many who tried and calculated it. The first known attempt was made by the British engineer Joseph Jagger. He discovered in 1873 that roulette wheels, at least at the time, were not always well-balanced. As a result, certain numbers fell more often than others.
With the help of a few students, he won a lot in the casino. Who then of course put a stop to his game. Later, and now, all roulette wheels were balanced and checked regularly.
Winning from the bank at roulette
There were more scientists who then did research into beating the bank. But they did not find a really useful solution. The bank retained its advantage through the European 0 or the American double 0. An advantage of 1/37 th part, or 2.7 percent.
The conclusion of many researchers was therefore “the only way to win with roulette is not to play.” Or, as Einstein put it, “winning at roulette can only get money off the table in one way if the dealer does not look”.
Small and Kong Tse
The Australian mathematician Michael Small, as yet another scientist, was surprised that there was no solution yet. Together with electrical engineer Chi Kong Tse from Hong Kong, he also searched for a way to win from the bank at roulette.
“Roulette is a unique deterministic game system,” says Michael Small. “With relatively simple movement laws, it should in principle be possible to calculate the path of the ball. And thus predict the final destination. For that reason, scientists from the early history of chaos theory have dealt with it. ”
Benefit on the couch
Small and Kong Tse went looking. They used different systems that could potentially give the bank a head start. And it worked. They eventually found a very simple model for the movement of a roulette wheel and the ball. Knowledge of the starting position, speed and acceleration allowed them to predict the outcome with sufficient certainty. Enough to achieve a positive return.
In their final report they describe two systems that can be used. The first mechanical system measures the rotation of the wheel and the ball to obtain the required data. When done at a European roulette game, they expect a positive return of at least 18 percent for the player. Instead of the negative return of 2.7 percent.
When using a digital camera above the wheel, the prediction improves enormously, according to Michael Small. The return therefore becomes even higher. Their analysis also shows that a very small slope in the table leads to even greater returns. After all, you will then get a modern variant of the Joseph Jagger method.
The chance that you can hang a digital camera in a serious casino is of course not great. So you have to do it with simpler resources.
House, garden and kitchen method
“We used high school maths and physics for our models,” says Michael Small. They wrote comparisons to predict the path of the ball after the dealer released it.
To that prediction, they added numbers that were slightly outside the forecast (extrapolating). “We extrapolated to the point where the ball touches the” frets “, the upright logs in the rim of the wheel that increase the random bounce of the ball. Then we gambled, but with greater certainty, in which box of the wheel the ball would land “.
The researchers obviously did not stick to models on paper. They dragged a European roulette table to their laboratory. There they played numerous turns and took their measurements. They used their simple, mechanical measurement system. With that they could predict in almost 60% of the cases in which half of the wheel the ball would fall.
When using a strategic roulette system, in combination with their predictions, they achieved a return of at least 18 percent. As mentioned, the result improved after placing a digital camera.
Slope of roulette wheel
If you want to apply the system of Small and Kong Tse, they have a comment and a suggestion. Croupiers often have a fixed, almost routine throw and spin. That gives you an advantage, because the speed of the ball and the wheel are therefore constant. You must therefore first assess that he has such a regular blow.
Then first look at the table, like Joseph Jagger. Find a table where the ball often falls on one side. That table has a slope, making forecasting easier and further improving your return.
Small and Kong Tse advise casinos to better instruct their croupiers. And to better control their tables for balance. Most casinos already do that. Only unreliable casinos mess around with their wheels. If successful with the method of Small and Kong Tse, you confirm to those criminal casinos that crime does not pay. Curious as to whether you can discover such a fixed, routine twist at a croupier? Visit a live casino and choose a table. You don't have to deposit money to watch!
Why does the bank always win? Because when you play long, you always lose with a bank advantage of 2.7 percent. So when you have an advantage yourself, you always win. Mathematically, you don't even have to predict which number will fall. If you keep playing long enough you win. With the above system, your benefit is at least 18 percent. That means you don't have to play as long to play at roulette.
Source: Small and Kong Tse's report “Predicting the outcome of roulette.”
More about roulette
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